Best value bets for UFC Freedom 250: Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje

The matchmakers for Sunday's UFC Freedom 250 — the first sporting event held at the White House — might have had other objectives in mind than evenly paired matchups. With extreme odds up and down the card, bettors will either have to look for angles other than sides to find value, or else parlay like crazy. But there is one very interesting matchup that has the market split, and the numbers at least had a clear opinion.

Play 2026 Soccer Pick 'Em with FOX One and make your picks for the world's biggest soccer tournament

Ilia Topuria (-550) vs. Justin Gaethje (+400)

Steep odds and an eight-year age gap. Both men enjoy a firefight, but Topuria is clearly less damaged and maintains tighter defense. The projected win probability is in line with the current odds, meaning I clearly think the favorite wins but don't see value in the side.

That leaves totals or props, and these are much trickier to project. The most affordable angle appears to be over 1.5 rounds on the assumption that Gaethje is still tough as nails, even if the market has this pegged as a squash match. Steep odds usually drive down the total, so perhaps there's value countering that narrative.

Eventually, the combination of age and cumulative damage for Gaethje, and the superior power of Topuria, could threaten a finish, so I'm not going to get too greedy on a higher total.

Best bet: Topuria to win for parlays, but low value. Over 1.5 rounds or Fight Starts Round 2

Alex Pereira (-110) vs. Ciryl Gane (-110)

This is arguably the most interesting matchup on the card, and the split market agrees. The models don't account for the move up in weight for Pereira, but that's OK, because the models have come down on the side of Gane with pick 'em lines. Another nuance of prediction models is having to specify the favorite, which is a predictive variable. So in cases like this, I run the matchup both ways. Gane came out as the lean either way.

The stat line is surprisingly close and entirely focused on the standup game. Nearly identical striking accuracy and pace, but with the per strike knockdown rate favoring Pereira (though earned in smaller weight classes) and avoidance and range favoring Gane. Perhaps surprisingly, Gane is a few years younger. As stated, the models lean Gane to land more efficiently when trading leather, and his power should be the most Pereira has ever felt. Let's just hope for no eye pokes.

Best bet: Gane to win

Sean O'Malley (-430) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+300)

This is priced like a layup for O'Malley, facing a smaller, older opponent who is sometimes too willing to stand and take damage. O'Malley may not be the world beater we thought, but he's still the most accurate long-range striker in the division, and that will force an uphill battle for Zahabi.

Shockingly (because his brother was notably the coach of Georges St-Pierre), Zahabi isn't a takedown threat. So spending rounds pressing forward against O'Malley sniping away in retreat doesn't offer much room for an upside. And yet playing O'Malley straight up doesn't offer much value either. Instead, I think Zahabi loses, but at least makes it a scrap, as he's been able to go the distance with great strikers before. And full disclosure, based on current prices, the models see the slightest value on Zahabi, though I think it's because O'Malley's stats are deflated by a bad run against wrestlers. Still, a lottery pick for the evening is Zahabi by decision at +500.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds

Mauricio Ruffy (-700) vs. Michael Chandler (+500)

Yet another potentially violent matchup, and again a massive youth advantage for the betting favorite. The numbers love Ruffy here. Despite Chandler showing some wrestling game, it hasn't been deployed consistently and could be easily nullified by a much larger opponent who also has strong takedown defense.

And while Chandler is chasing from distance, Ruffy will be landing more accurate and powerful shots against the the worst head-strike defense on the entire card. Chandler's willingness to take punches got him to the White House card, but it doesn't bode well against so many factors stacked against him in this matchup.

Best bet: Ruffy to win for parlays. Prop on Ruffy by TKO

Josh Hokit (-350) vs. Derrick Lewis (+270)

So let's acknowledge the statistics in this matchup are the most ridiculous I've ever seen. With minimal sample size, Hokit's limited cage time has been a wild ride. His offensive numbers are unnaturally high, but his key defensive stat is extremely low. Unfortunately, we don't really know what's real and should regress to reality given some more Octagon time. And then there's Derrick Lewis, who owns some extreme traits in his own right.

When heavyweights owning dangerous offense and terrible defense collide, picking a winner can feel like a coin flip. That would suggest value on the veteran Lewis to find one shot that could end the night at a hefty return. However, Hokit's surprisingly durable performance against a contender like Curtis Blaydes instantly established him as a force to be respected. On one hand, the sample size is so small the models can't get a realistic read on this. On the other hand, we know that neither man will survive long if the other mounts sustained offense, even if just for a moment. Lewis these days is the embodiment of hit or miss. He folds easily, but only if you can avoid getting hit even once.

The glaring liability on Hokit's stat line was being hit by every other punch against Blaydes … and that just won't work against Lewis. Can Lewis fire off at least two clean shots for a sizable return? That's the real bet.

Best bet: FDNGTD for parlays. Small prop on Lewis to win by TKO

Bo Nickal (-330) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+270)

Anything but normal matchmaking continues. Daukaus has made an impressive return to the UFC after washing out and is now getting thrown to someone everyone thought would be fighting for a title by now.

The stats show Nickal with slightly better striking metrics, though having a reserved pace versus the extremely aggressive output of Daukaus. That high rate of output will work against him with Nickal having options to counterstrike with precision, or simply change levels and utilize his dominant wrestling.

This is another one that depends on price. The models come in clearly on the side of Nickal, but not enough to see value playing him straight up. Both fighters are capable of finishing, though Daukaus is a bit more damaged. I think the better play is to expect a finish, despite a small fractional unit lean on Daukaus based on current prices.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds

Diego Lopes (-165) vs. Steve Garcia (+135)

The curtain jerker could bring fireworks. They've combined for 13 knockdowns, but they differentiate more so on the defensive side. Garcia has better range and defense, but he's been dropped five times. Meanwhile, Lopes is yet another guy who snuck into the upper ranks despite the massive liability of poor head-strike defense. This feels like another coin flip scenario where Garcia could pull ahead, only to lose the war of attrition or get clipped in pursuit.

The models have a pass here, with just a slight lean toward Lopes. But again, I think the finishing potential on both sides is worth noticing. As is the extreme power of Garcia, who actually has the highest per strike knockdown rate on the entire card (a card stacked with strikers, no less). I'll sprinkle a flier on Garcia by TKO, but mainly expect the firefight to send someone down the canvas eventually.

Best bet: FDNGTD