Fantasy Baseball: Scott Pianowski's 9 (favorite) mistakes for the 2026 season he's ready to learn from
It might seem odd but I actually find it liberating to write a column centered around mistakes. I attempt to maintain a transparent nature to my work, and I also think identifying errors can help us make better decisions in the future. And of course, if we don't examine history, we're fated to repeat it.
So let's dial up some Sheryl Crow and look at some missteps from my March baseball ranks and beliefs. A baseball lineup has nine players and a baseball game has nine innings, so we'll give you nine mistakes today.
I understand I have a few more mistakes, waiting in the bullpen. We all do.
1 — I underestimated what Shohei Ohtani might do as a pitcher. Obviously, no one could reasonably expect a 1.06 ERA and 0.842 WHIP through 11 starts, but I was cautious with workload projections, given that the Dodgers often baby their rotation. Ohtani is just a magician at this point, introducing a new trick every season, or so it seems. Never say never with him.
2 — I didn't fully appreciate the downside risk with Will Smith. There was going to be some regression after his career year in 2025, and he's always blocked from extra DH time because Ohtani covers that spot. Perhaps I also could have anticipated Dalton Rushing being one of the better backup catchers in the league, cutting somewhat into Smith's role.
To be fair, even if I got to some of these conclusions, I wouldn't have projected Smith to have the worst OPS+ of his career. But I certainly ranked him too high.
3 — I was too optimistic about the Red Sox offense. While no one expected Boston to tumble from seventh in runs last year to 29th this year, the main problem has been the lost season from Roman Anthony. Perhaps the mistake was over-projecting Anthony to instantly step into stardom in his age-22 season, with just 71 games of MLB play under his belt. No one could have projected Anthony's curious finger injury, but there was a helium to his March ADP — the type of thing I often eschew — and I needed to be more careful.
4 — I let my Andrew Vaughn optimism cloud me from Jake Bauers. They both ostensibly play the same position, though Bauers can also cover the outfield. Bauers was a plus bat last year and had a good spring, and although the Milwaukee roster glut made him hard to draft in March, I should have been more proactive in adding Bauers in-season, especially after Vaughn got hurt.
5 — I misunderstood the proper floor for Luis Castillo. Although Castillo has been slightly above league average for the last two years, I figured he could still be fantasy worthy in his age-33 season because of Seattle's big park and winning backdrop. I didn't appreciate that the Mariners also have a mediocre defense, and I should have been more judicious with Castillo's career arc.
6 — I should have drafted Jordan Walker, anywhere. I'm always on the lookout for a post-hype sleeper, and Walker had all the signs flashing entering 2026. He also had a snappy spring. You don't have to be right on this type of player that often to make it worthwhile, and as we sit in the middle of June, Walker's the most common hitter on the best Yahoo public teams. Said another way, he's been the No. 1 right answer on offense this year.
7 — I should have scouted the Tampa Bay Rays staff more carefully. This isn't even that hard to do — normally, you send a few emails to Jason Collette (who knows the team inside and outside) and you're good to go. The Rays gave us a number of right answers on the mound, including Nick Martinez (2.60 ERA), Drew Rasmussen (2.59 ERA), Shane McClanahan (3.23 ERA) and closer Bryan Baker (18 saves, 1.91 ERA).
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I said all spring that Milwaukee had become the new Rays, the lower-market team that's smarter than everyone else, and I stand behind that. But that doesn't mean I still couldn't benefit from following the original OGs in Tampa.
8 — I should have drafted Munetaka Murakami, anywhere. I had the White Sox properly pegged as a surprise team, and that's led to a lot of fantasy value. Miguel Vargas has been a savior for fantasy managers. But Murakami had a global ADP around 200 all March, a low-risk price. I should have added a share or two, just in case.
9 — I should have been more open-minded with Byron Buxton. It was reasonable to consider 2025 a career year with both production and health, and prudent not to chase that again. But what if Buxton regressed to 2024's production, or 2022's? Those would still validate his spring ADP.
Okay, no one expected Buxton would be completely healthy all year, and build on what he did last season. But you didn't have to predict the upside here — you had to be more creative on what his floor probably was.
