World Cup 2026: Early picks for Round of 32 matchups, as they are decided
As the World Cup Round of 32 takes shape, a reminder about how betting works in the knockout stage, because it's a mistake everyone has made at some point.
By default, most wagers are for regulation time only. In other words, extra time and penalty shootouts don't count toward most bets. Having said that, some books have started offering bets that explicitly include extra time (or overtime), so beware of what you're betting.
If you want to pick a team to reach the next round, that bet is typically called "to advance" or "to qualify." It covers all methods of getting through, whether in regulation, extra time or penalties.
Keeping that in mind, here are my thoughts on each Round-of-32 matchup as they're confirmed. Remember, that Yahoo Sports' Soccer Pick 'Em with FOX ONE reopens as well for the knockout round — so be sure to make your picks!
Sunday, June 28
South Africa double chance (+110) vs. Canada
This might be a knee-jerk reaction to South Africa looking solid against South Korea on Wednesday, while Canada was mediocre for most of its game against Switzerland.
The cumulative tournament numbers for both these teams are mostly worthless, since South Africa was dominated by Mexico when down a man for most of the second half and then down another for the closing minutes, and Canada padded its stats versus nine-man Qatar. Both teams played fairly evenly in their other two games, all four of which were draws or decided by one goal, so we didn't learn much.
Canada finishing Group B runner-up hurt in two ways.
First, this game is in Los Angeles instead of Vancouver, so the home-field advantage won't be a factor. Second, this game is four days earlier than group winner Switzerland plays, and that's a huge issue for a Canada squad besieged by injuries. Their best player (Alphonso Davies), defender (Moise Bombito) and midfielder (Stephen Eustaquio, who played half a hour vs Switzerland) are all dealing with ailments that leave their statuses unknown for this match.
So these two teams look fairly even but going opposite directions, with South Africa thrilled to reach a first World Cup knockout stage and Canada disappointed to be playing earlier and away from home. With all the question marks around Canada, I'll take South Africa on the double chance (win or tie).
