World Cup 2026 odds: USMNT opens as small favorite vs. Belgium in Round of 16

The United States doesn't have a long and storied history of playing in the knockout rounds of the World Cup, so this is somewhat uncharted territory for the USMNT.

But after defeating Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 on Wednesday night as a sizable -800 favorite to advance, the USMNT is again favored in its Round of 16 matchup against Belgium on July 6 in Seattle.

The United States opened as a -120 favorite to advance at BetMGM, with Belgium at -105. On the three-way line, the U.S. is +150, Belgium +170 and a draw has +240 odds.

The U.S. would be a bigger favorite if it were playing with star forward Folarin Balogun, who will have to miss the match after getting a controversial red card in the 64th minute against Bosnia and Herzegovina with the U.S. leading 1-0. Despite the VAR controversy, the U.S. can't appeal the red card, and so Balogun will have to miss the match.

The USMNT has been a thorn in the side of sportsbooks throughout the tournament, as the betting public has loaded up on the U.S. to win all of its four matches — and profited on three of the four. On Wednesday night, multiple sportsbooks reported lopsided action on the U.S., with upwards of 85% of bets and 90% of money wagered on the team to win.

"As we've become accustomed to, the USMNT were extremely popular with our bettors, attracting 91% of handle in the match betting market," Mark Bickerdike, head of soccer at Caesars Sportsbook, said in a statement. "In addition, 87% of handle was on Mauricio Pochettino's men in the ‘to qualify’ market, so it's fair to say we have plenty of happy bettors this evening."

Caesars reported that the U.S.-Bosnia and Herzegovina match generated the most money wagered ever for a soccer match at the sportsbook.

Belgium defeated Senegal 3-2 on Wednesday, scoring three late goals after losing for most of the game and being down 2-0 for a majority of the second half.

The U.S. men's national team hasn't been the quarterfinals of a World Cup since 2002, when it defeated Mexico 2-0 in the Round of 16, but it is now one step away.