Graham Platner’s chances of dropping out skyrocket to 94% after party revolt: Kalshi
Traders on prediction market Kalshi are piling into wagers that Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner will drop out of the race by next week.
The contract on whether Platner will drop out before July 14 soared to 94 cents Tuesday morning from the previous single digits, implying traders now assign a roughly 94% probability to his impending exit. The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, sits just north of $4.4 million.
While prediction markets don't determine political outcomes, the surge in betting reflects a growing belief among traders that Platner's campaign is in serious jeopardy following the latest allegations. Platner is seeking to unseat five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, in one of the nation's most closely watched Senate races.
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The market's abrupt swing follows Democrats' rapid break with Platner after a rape allegation was leveled against him on Monday, which immediately triggered calls from across the party for him to suspend his campaign.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., one of Platner's highest-profile backers, rescinded her endorsement after previously saying that he is "my kind of man."
"With so much at stake, the best path forward is for Graham Platner to step aside as the Democratic nominee and address these serious allegations outside this Senate race," the progressive senator wrote in a statement.
Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., also withdrew his backing and called on Platner to exit the race.
Sens. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., and Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., likewise pulled their support Monday, though Gallego stopped short of urging Platner to suspend his campaign.
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The mounting pressure for an end to his Senate bid began after Maine resident Jenny Racicot accused Platner of raping her nearly five years ago, telling Politico and CNN that he entered her home uninvited while intoxicated and forced himself on her despite her repeated attempts to stop him.
Platner denied the allegation, saying in a statement he was "taking the time to reflect on the best path forward" for his campaign.
The Marine Corps veteran and oyster farmer emerged this year as one of the Democratic Party's fastest-rising political figures, drawing national attention for his populist message and outsider image.
As his profile has grown, so has scrutiny of his past conduct.
In recent months, his campaign has been engulfed by a series of controversies, including the resurfacing of sexually explicit messages, offensive social media posts, a tattoo linked to Nazi symbolism and campaign staff turmoil.
Despite all this, his odds of remaining in the race after smooth sailing to primary election victory last month remained high. But the most recent rape allegation has reversed that, at least on Kalshi.
