Best value bets for UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor

The return of Conor McGregor for a rematch with Max Holloway will surely draw most of the attention this week at UFC 329 in Las Vegas. But don’t sleep on the rest of the card, featuring several former champions and title contenders.

Let’s break down some key spots where we can perhaps take advantage.

Max Holloway (-218) vs Conor McGregor (+180)

Full disclosure: The five-year layoff precludes me from running the models on any Conor McGregor matchup. I need a minimum of three appearances within the trailing five years, as I don’t trust data older than that. However, we do have all the usual performance metrics to look at, and they help define both fighters’ relative strengths.

The narrative will obviously be McGregor early or Holloway late — and the data agrees. Both men have equally excellent distance striking accuracy, but also somewhat mediocre head strike avoidance. And they like to use similarly high outputs while standing and trading, without many takedowns. So, we’ll definitely see plenty of time in a striking duel.

What differentiates is McGregor’s range and power. He’s always been dangerous out of the gates, but has little experience in bonus rounds, plus big questions about his stamina that always come with long layoffs and ring rust. And that parallels Holloway’s late game strength in accumulating damage and wearing down opponents with high volume.

Uncertainty and volatility are extreme in comeback fights like this, and this call is not predictive by numbers alone. But I like Holloway’s chances to weather the early storm or force McGregor to be conservative early. That means letting the fight develop and opens the door for Holloway to do what he does best and finish strong. He just has to ensure he maintains tight defense early when welterweight McGregor wields far more power behind his early punches.

Best bet: Side is an official pass. Over 1.5 rounds.

Adrian Yanez (-410) vs Cody Garbrandt (+320)

The combined knockdowns between these two fighters are high at 28, with 18 scored and 10 received. They both hit hard, but have taken some damage of their own. However, I think Garbrandt’s defensive liabilities will define this fight and are the reason for the steep price.

In a striking shootout, a fighter with soft defense and seven knockdowns received at a higher than usual pace against a younger, rangier and more accurate striker are factors too skewed to ignore. Yanez gets the strong lean by the numbers, but that price is risky given Garbrandt’s threats. Better to play the finish angle.

Best bet: Fight Does Not Start Round 3 at even money.

Cory Sandhagen (-142) vs Mario Bautista (+120)

This matchup between top-five bantamweights could decide the pecking order for future title shots, and it looks as close on paper as the odds suggest. Both guys are elite for the division and also have very similar performance metrics. While Sandhagen arguably has the better strength of schedule, Bautista gets the edge in pace and efficiency, which are normally Sandhagen’s strengths. I expect close rounds where Bautista might step on the gas and turn this into a barnburner.

I had an early lean on Bautista, and the lines have tightened. I’d still play him as long as he’s even money or better, and I do think this one goes the distance. And if you see a significant strike total to play, take the over.

Best bet: Fight Goes The Distance. Lean Bautista at plus money.