Fantasy Baseball: 5 hitters who have been struggling but could bounce back in the second half based on advanced metrics
One way to find hitters who could bounce back in the second half is to look at expected metrics. Most expected batting average (xBA) formulas involve exit velocity. We want hitters to hit the ball hard. If hitters hit the ball hard and make enough contact, positive outcomes should occur. That’s a case where we want to trust a player’s skills instead of luck.
The visual below shows the hitters with the biggest gap in their xBA and actual BA. That suggests these hitters should have a better BA based on their skills.
We’ll take this a step further, looking at the hitters with the biggest expected wOBA difference in their actual wOBA, adding another layer to their profile. Unsurprisingly, some of the hitters with potential positive regression in their xBA also land on the list of xwOBA improvers, as seen below.
That said, let’s examine several hitters who could rebound in the second half based on the advanced metrics.
Brandon Nimmo, OF, Rangers (70% rostered)
After hitting 20+ home runs and stealing double-digit bases in the two previous seasons, most of the projections have Nimmo under 20 home runs. The Mets' home park ranks 18th, with the Rangers at 17th in Home Run Park Factors for left-handed hitters in the three-year rolling average. That said, it’s a neutral change. However, the Rangers' home park ranks 12th and the Mets is 19th in Home Run Park Factor for left-handed hitters if we filter by this season.
Nimmo has been unlucky with the lowest home run rate (HR/F) at 8.8% since his rookie season. That’s over four points below his career average. In Nimmo’s peak home run seasons (2024-2025), he pulled the ball more often. That’s evident in Nimmo’s 38.8% pull rate in 2024 and 35.5% in 2025. Nimmo’s pull rate has fallen to 31.5% this season with a below-average 12% pulled-air rate.
We should expect a bounce back from Nimmo in power because he boasts a career-best 9.1% barrel rate per plate appearance, up nearly four points from his career average. Furthermore, Nimmo rocks a 102.4 mph Exit Velocity 50 (EV50), ranking 43rd this season, similar to 2025 (102.6 mph, No. 50). Theoretically, Nimmo’s power output should be better with him barreling up the ball more often and hitting it harder.
In three outfielder leagues, Nimmo might be more of a streamer to buy low on or scoop up in shallower leagues. However, Nimmo should be a trade target in deeper five-outfielder leagues because he regularly hits in the top half of the Rangers’ lineup and shows better exit velocity metrics.
Mike Trout, OF, Angels (96% rostered)
Trout missed nearly one month with a hamstring injury, but he was pacing for nearly 40 home runs beforehand. He popped up when looking at hitters with a better expected wOBA (xwOBA) than their actual wOBA, potentially highlighting hitters who may have been unlucky in the first half of the season. After a 73% contact rate last season, Trout’s contact rate improved (79.6%) closer to his career average. This is a situation where Trout’s strong plate discipline will help him age well, especially since he hits the ball hard.
Trout boasts an 11% barrel rate per plate appearance, over one percentage point above his career norm. He consistently pulls the ball into the air 21.9% of the time this season, up over one point from his career average (20%). If Trout continues to hit the ball harder and remains healthy, he can push for 35 home runs, his highest total since the 2022 season.
Although Trout’s seven stolen bases could sneakily add value, projection systems expect that to regress, with him reaching 10 over the entire season. Trout has a 6% stolen base opportunity rate this season, six points below his career average (12%). If Trout continues to run at a decent rate, there could be 35/15 within his range of outcomes.
Fantasy managers may be skeptical of Trout's health. This could present a buying opportunity after he recently returned from the injured list.
Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals (99% rostered)
Witt should hit more home runs, given his near-elite power, so this is more of a buy for home runs. Though Witt is performing like a second-round pick, there’s still time for him to round into his form as a top-three player in the second half. He has been struggling to hit for power in the first half.
In the first half of the season, Witt stole 30 bases, with the projections expecting 45 or more over the entire season. Witt’s high 33% stolen base opportunity rate in 2026 is higher than 2025 (29%) and 2024 (23%). There’s a good chance Witt repeats the 2025 season (23/38). However, many hoped that Witt’s power output would be there after they moved the walls closer at their home ballpark.
Witt’s 9% barrel rate per plate appearance aligns with his career average. However, his 13.6% pulled-air rate this season fell from 15.8% (2025) and 17.1% (2026). Interestingly, Witt’s 10.3% HR/F in 2026 is within one percentage point of his career norm, so he hasn’t been unlucky there.
Walks contribute to a player’s wOBA. Witt has a career-high 9.7% walk rate this season, which is supported by lower swing rates. For context, Witt has a 48% swing rate and 66.5% zone swing rate. Both metrics would be 3-4 percentage points lower than his career norm. He has been slightly more patient, leading to more walks.
Since Witt’s plate discipline, power and stolen base chances have maintained or improved, the home runs should bounce back in the second half, pushing for a potential career season. He should go on a home run binge to net 30-35 home runs for the rest of the season.
Fernando Tatis Jr., 2B/OF, Padres (99% rostered)
Through May, Tatis had one home run, 14 steals and a .266 batting average. However, he has four home runs, nine steals and a .291 batting average since June 1. From a skills standpoint, Tatis had a lower contact rate (73.8%) with a 6.5% barrel rate per plate appearance through May. For context, he posted an identical contact rate (73.8%) and an 8.8% barrel rate per plate appearance since June 1.
Tatis has been hitting the ball harder since June, though most projection systems don’t have him reaching 20 home runs. His pulled-air rate has fallen to a career-low (8.9%), down from 12% (2025) and 14.5% (2024). Interestingly, Tatis has elite bat speed (79.1 mph) when he pulls the ball into the air this season. Furthermore, he averages a 104.2 mph exit velocity on pulled balls in the air, though the average hit distance fell to a career low (277 feet). For context, Tatis’s batted balls that were pulled into the air had an average hit distance of 300+ over the previous three seasons.
There’s a good chance Tatis’s power output will regress favorably, though it will take plenty of luck to reach the expected home run ceiling. Thankfully, Tatis has been running more often, which helps to boost his fantasy value. That’s evident by his 28% stolen base opportunity rate this season, up six points from the career norm. If Tatis maintains this stolen base opportunity rate, it will be a career best after 20% in 2025 and 14% in 2024.
In mid-May, I called Tatis a buy-low candidate. Since he has been hitting the ball harder while running, we’ll double down on him rebounding in the second half of the season. That’s especially true since Tatis has been performing better since June.
Tyler Soderstrom, 1B/OF, Athletics (92% rostered)
Soderstrom recently returned from the injured list after dealing with a hip injury, though he wasn’t on there long. Though he has been walking more (13%), the swing rates remain similar, so he isn’t being more passive. However, Soderstrom has been making more contact (80.3%) with fewer whiffs (9% swinging-strike rate). He provides an optimal combination of strong plate discipline and above-average power.
He continues to show strong power skills, with a 6.9% barrel rate per plate appearance. Soderstrom has been pulling the ball into the air more often (16.7%), up from 12.1% last season. He ranked 35th in EV50 at 103 mph last season, which dropped to 101.6 mph (No. 66) this year. That’s slightly lower, but still in the high-end range of EV50.
The BABIP regressed, meaning Soderstrom might be more of a .250-.260 hitter than one that hits above .270 regularly. Soderstrom’s peak outcomes based on the rest-of-season projections suggest 28 home runs, 160-170 R+RBI and a .270 batting average.
Over the past two seasons, the Athletics’ home park has been the sixth-best in Home Run Park Factors for left-handed hitters. That’s favorable for Soderstrom to potentially surpass his home run projections, given his power and homer-friendly ballpark, especially considering the talk about less drag on the ball and the weather heating up over the summer.
I’m expecting a power spike for Soderstrom and the Athletics’ lineup in the second half.
