2026 NBA Draft: 5 first-round sleepers to watch

We spend all year debating the can’t-miss guys at the top of the NBA draft, and then a decade later we look up and realize so many of the players actually leading contenders were the prospects that don’t draw clicks. So here are five players that could become the 2026 version of the guy who slid too far:

Ebuka Okorie, 6-1, Stanford freshman guard

Okorie is the best driving guard in the class, a 6-foot-1 jitterbug who manipulates defenders with a tight handle, sudden changes of speed, and an advanced feel for the game. But in a loaded class of guards, Okorie is often projected to get picked last of the bunch — somewhere in the 20s. He has a lower draft stock in part because he’s not an above-the-rim athlete and he’s less proven as a shooter after making just 35% of his 3-pointers. Okorie also didn’t face the same level of competition as his peers.

Not long ago, Okorie was a kid from New Hampshire who ranked outside the top 100 and committed to Harvard. Then Stanford found him, he flipped his commitment, and he proceeded to lead the ACC in scoring with eight 30-point games and a habit for hitting clutch shots. Teams will have to decide whether what carved up a less competitive conference will survive against the NBA. And against the competition he did face, he shined.

Stanford had an 11.9% turnover rate with Okorie on the floor and 20.5% with him off, the largest drop off in the entire nation, per CBB Analytics. He was a score-first player who took care of the ball and was the engine of the team. There are also plenty of indicators that he’ll figure out his jumper since he made over 80% of his free throws and over 50% of his floaters. Even without an elite jumper, he lived at the rim. Imagine what happens if defenses someday can’t dare him to shoot.

Allen Graves, 6-9, Santa Clara freshman forward

Graves was a point guard before a late growth spurt, and the floor skills carried over when he sprouted to 6-9. He came off the bench at Santa Clara as a redshirt freshman and quietly became one of the most efficient producers in college basketball. Graves is widely considered an analytics darling, but he’s also the type of player who makes winning plays beyond the box score with dives on the floor, hustle out of his area for rebounds, and extra passes that lead to open shots.

But he played only 22.6 minutes per game in the West Coast Conference, which means teams are projecting from a small body of work against limited competition. And his games against superior opponents are a tad worrying. Against Quad 1 and 2 teams compared to Quad 3 and 4 teams, he shot 12% worse at the rim (68% to 56%) and 13% worse from 3-point range (47% to 34%), per CBB Analytics. His numbers on post-ups also dropped from 48% to 38% and 61% to 39% out of pick-and-rolls as the screener, per Synergy.

Whether he can maintain his elite efficiency against tougher competition is a question Santa Clara’s schedule couldn’t answer. Many NBA executives would have rather seen Graves go back to college and prove himself against better teams, while also improving his athleticism. If he had done that, he could’ve been a top 10 pick in 2027. If Graves falls to the late teens or 20s, some team could be picking up a major steal.

Jayden Quaintance, 6-11, Kentucky sophomore big

Quaintance is going to get drafted in the mid-late first round based almost entirely on what he looked like before his knee exploded. As a freshman at Arizona State, he was blocking everything in sight, showing defensive instincts and mobility that players his size aren't supposed to have, and he was 17 years old doing it.

Then came a torn ACL, a torn meniscus, a fractured knee, a transfer to Kentucky, persistent swelling in his knee, and a shutdown for his sophomore season. All scary stuff, sure. That is why he’s the one player on this list that I actually have ranked lower than the NBA consensus — but even the team rank is low compared to the top-five to 10 projection he had entering college.

Isn’t an injury concern exactly how some steals end up happening? Teams will have to judge Quaintance off 28 games. But he has a 7-foot-5 wingspan, weighs 255 pounds, and doesn’t turn 19 until July — making him the second-youngest projected draft pick this year behind Cam Boozer. He could come in right away and be a highly impactful NBA defender. Offensively, he’s a bit of an eyesore as a perimeter player, but he’s an excellent dunker with a hint of connective passing feel. There’s something for teams to work with. He just needs to stay healthy.

Meleek Thomas, 6-5, Arkansas freshman guard

When Darius Acuff was sidelined at Missouri to close the regular season, Thomas scored 30 points to will Arkansas to an overtime win. One week later, on a night where Acuff was bottled up, Thomas led Arkansas to the SEC championship game with 29 against Ole Miss. He showed off his full arsenal of scoring ability with shooting off movement and midrange pull-ups. Thomas doesn’t get to the rim often enough on his own and his shot selection drifts into hero ball. So sharing the ball with Acuff all year led to tremendous offensive results.

But what if Thomas spent the entire year playing without Acuff? In the 210 minutes that he did, he averaged 26.5 points per 40 minutes on 62% true shooting, per CBB Analytics. With Acuff, Thomas put up 19.2 points per 40 on 55% true shooting. So, Thomas was way more efficient on a way higher usage without Acuff.

It makes one naturally wonder if there’s potential for Thomas to blossom into a star if he falls in the right environment as a projected pick in the late teens or 20s.

Morez Johnson Jr., 6-9, Michigan sophomore forward

You know the guy on a championship team who never gets enough credit nationally? The one who sets the bone-crushing screen that springs the star, then immediately sprints to the rim for the lob, then turns around and blows up the other team's pick-and-roll on the other end all in one sequence? That's Morez Johnson. He transferred from Illinois to Michigan and became the connective tissue of the national champions as a 251-pound wrecking ball with a 7-4 wingspan and the defensive IQ to guard 1 through 5 in a switch-heavy scheme.

Players with that blend of strength, length, quickness, heart, and mind don’t actually come around often. But Johnson is projected to get taken in the teens, not the lottery, because of concerns over his offense. He was a low-volume shooter in college and is uncomfortable handling the ball. Johnson didn’t take a single 3 as an Illinois freshman and he shot only 62% from the line. Then as a Michigan sophomore he hit nearly 80% of his free throws, began making a handful of jumpers, and had a good week shooting the ball at the NBA Draft Combine.

It would be shocking if Johnson isn’t at least a quality role player in the NBA, and if he keeps building on his shooting progress in the NBA he’ll bring role player versatility on offense to complement his all-world defensive upside.