Defying the odds: Why these three long shots could be Heisman trophy winners this season
The college football season is still almost three months away, but there is never a bad time to start looking forward to 2026.
As a matter of fact, if you haven't started prognosticating playoff brackets and award winners, you're already behind.
Today, we are talking Heisman trophy hopefuls, but not in the traditional sense.
Sure, anyone can sit here on the internet and say that Arch Manning or Jeremiah Smith will be in New York in December, but can you find the diamond in the rough that will shock everyone and become a household name by season's end?
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Some of the most iconic Heisman winners are players who started the season as relative unknowns, with only the most hardcore college fans even knowing their names in September.
I'm not sure many people outside of Bloomington figured Fernando Mendoza would light the nation on fire and take home that 45-pound bronze statue.
Below are three "off-the-radar" picks to who I believe have the best chance to hoist the Heisman in 2026.
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If you disagree, feel free to drop your Heisman pick in the comments below.
Most of you reading this will probably have the same reaction: "How can any quarterback being coached by Lane Kiffin be considered a long shot to win the Heisman?"
You're right to feel that way, considering Kiffin and offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss Jr. transformed Trinidad Chambliss from a relative unknown at Ferris State to an All-SEC quarterback in just one season.
However, if you look at the Heisman odds, Arizona State transfer Sam Leavitt ranks ninth among quarterbacks at +2200.
Leavitt was the highest-rated quarterback in the transfer portal, and when you couple that with Kiffin, Weiss Jr. and a reported $40 million roster, and I like Leavitt's odds better than just about anyone on the board.
Though he already has playoff experience from his days as a Sun Devil, Leavitt will be one of the premier names in the country by the time Kiffin is done with him, and that should translate to more than his fair share of postseason award recognition in the process.
It's not often that a non-quarterback wins the Heisman these days, which would explain why Miami's Mark Fletcher Jr. is such a long shot to win the award.
Of course, there were exceptions in the past like with Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith and, most recently, Colorado's Travis Hunter, but quarterbacks usually have the inside track when it comes to winning the Heisman.
That being said, if a running back were to win it, Fletcher at +15,000 is a damn good deal.
Fletcher is a bruising back who could have gone to the NFL this past spring, but chose to stick around Coral Gables and take another crack at winning a national championship after the Canes fell agonizingly close in January.
Teams will likely be keying on Miami's passing game, which will also feature Heisman favorites at quarterback in Darrien Mensah and wide receiver Malachi Toney, leaving Fletcher to feast on what's left of the opposing defense.
When you couple that with the Hurricanes' uncanny ability to churn out top-level offensive line play, something head coach Mario Cristobal and o-line coach Alex Mirobal pride themselves on, I have no doubt Fletcher will put up monster numbers for Miami in 2026.
If Sam Leavitt is considered a long shot to win the Heisman this year, then Oklahoma State signal caller Drew Mestemaker should be seen as a straight up moon shot.
The redshirt sophomore followed head coach Eric Morris over from North Texas, and it's easy to see why.
Mestemaker was a statistical juggernaut while playing in Morris' air-raid system, leading the country in both passing yards and yards per attempt, and finishing second in passing touchdowns in 2025.
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The Mean Green were a loss in their conference championship game away from making it to the College Football Playoff last season, and many are viewing the Cowboys as CFP darlings this year, due in no small part to both Mestemaker and Morris making the trip north on I-35.
Making the jump to a power conference could mean stiffer competition, but it will also mean a lot more notoriety for the young quarterback as well.
I expect the marriage between Mestemaker and Morris to be a fruitful one, and Oklahoma State's offense should be one of the most potent in the country.
Mark my words, everyone in America will know who Drew Mestemaker is by the end of November.
