2026 World Cup picks: Why the USMNT can be trusted to win Group D
When filling out Yahoo's 2026 Soccer Pick 'Em game, one of the biggest challenges is what to do with your favorite team. Whether you have high hopes or no hope for the team you root for, how do you balance head and heart when making black-and-white choices with prizes on the line?
It's not an easy task, so bear with me as I work through my struggles about trusting (or not) my beloved United States in the group stage, starting at the attacking end of the field and working backward …
USMNT's offense can make up for its questionable defense
Before Sunday, Christian Pulisic hadn't scored for club or country in 21 games, last finding the net on Dec. 28 with AC Milan. Then suddenly he was a menace against Senegal, tallying a goal and an assist and looking every bit the most dangerous American player that he is.
Pulisic worked well off Ricardo Pepi in that game, and Folarin Balogun came on at half and scored to continue his hot form, netting his 13th goal in 27 games for club and country this year. Pepi, Balogun and Haji Wright each scored at least 18 club goals this season, so the U.S. seems to have plenty of options up top. I'm feeling good about the offense at the moment.
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I have more questions about central midfield, mostly toward the back. Tyler Adams is the only internationally established defensive midfielder, and it looks like he'll be paired with Sebastian Berhalter, or maybe Weston McKennie drops deeper than usual. That concerns me against top opponents, but the U.S. should also have more of the ball in at least two of the three group games. More on that shortly.
As we move farther into the defensive half, the questions get bigger. On the bright side, the apparently preferred three-back system frees up Antonee Robinson and Sergiño Dest to get forward, which is what they do best. On the down side, a U.S. team that has struggled to find more than one reliable center back now needs three of them, and that one top choice (Chris Richards) may not be ready for the opener.
A suspect defense may be playing in front of the least-experienced American World Cup keeper in 36 years. Should Matt Freese start the first match against Paraguay, he'll have the fewest caps (14 through the Senegal match) of any U.S. keeper to start a World Cup game since Tony Meola in 1990. He did acquit himself well at last year's Gold Cup, highlighted by three saves in a shootout win over Costa Rica in the quarterfinals.
U.S. has recent wins over Group D opponents Australia, Paraguay
At December's World Cup draw, the good news for the Americans was that as a seeded host nation, they were not grouped with any traditional power, nor are any of the three opponents (Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye) markedly better than the U.S.
The bad news was that neither are any of those three opponents in the bottom tier of teams at this tournament. The U.S. will not be a massive favorite over any of them, as suggested by last year's results.
The U.S. hosted friendlies against all three group opponents last year, and each game ended 2-1, with American wins over Australia and Paraguay last fall, and a loss to Türkiye in June. All three results were about right, given the chances each team created, but the margins in all three games were also slim. A slip or a call or a deflection could easily have changed the outcome.
The U.S. had 56 percent of the possession against Paraguay and 63 percent versus Australia, and both numbers are about what I expect to see in the group stage. Against Türkiye, the U.S. had 59 percent possession, though that figure is skewed by playing from behind for the final hour.
In 21-year-olds Arda Güler (Real Madrid) and Kenan Yildiz (Juventus), Türkiye has two of the best young players at the tournament and presents the toughest U.S. test of the group stage. Were this game not on U.S. soil, Türkiye would justifiably be favored. However, that game is also the group finale, and the U.S. should have a spot in the knockout stage all but locked up by then, ideally freeing the Americans to cut loose in an attempt to win the group.
So, will USMNT win Group D?
There are plenty of reasons for optimism and for pessimism about this United States team. It's a Rorschach test, a reflection of how you see the world and an indication of what you see when you eye that glass of water at 50 percent capacity.
My opinion on how this group stage will go has vacillated regularly over the last six months, and the angel on my shoulder has won out. The team has generally played well lately, with five good results to close 2025 and two decent first halves against Belgium and Portugal in March, before Sunday's strong showing against a good Senegal team.
Homefield is also a big factor, generally worth half a goal in an international soccer match. The fans will help fuel this U.S. team, and more familiarity with the heat and humidity of an American summer will also be an advantage.
Even though Türkiye has the two best players in the group, the U.S. is still deeper and more consistent, and that gives the Americans a higher ceiling in the group stage. I choose to trust this team, and I'm picking them to win Group D.
Do you trust USMNT?
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