World Cup quarterfinals picks: Predictions and best bets for every match
The World Cup quarterfinals are upon us, and there are no more Cinderellas, unless you want to count steady-but-not-spectacular Switzerland. Getting through a group stage and two knockout rounds without being a legit contender is almost impossible. With eight teams left, we’re down to the best of the best, and the margins are fine. One bounce or whistle or stumble can be the difference between a legendary upset and an embarrassing result.
The bets are more challenging too, with teams more evenly matched and matchups more difficult to analyze. Teams may resort to different tactics when pressed with the desperation of advancing or going home. All of those factors make for the glorious drama of a World Cup, filled with pain and heartache for teams, fans and bettors.
As always, remember that wagers are for regulation time only unless otherwise noted. In other words, extra time and penalty shootouts don't count toward most bets. Having said that, some books do offer bets that explicitly include extra time (or overtime), so beware of what you're betting.
If you want to pick a team to reach the next round, that bet is typically called "to advance" or "to qualify." It covers all methods of getting through, whether in regulation, extra time or penalties.
Keeping that in mind, here are my thoughts on each quarterfinal matchup.
France vs. Morocco
Morocco to advance (+320) vs. France
I picked France to win the tournament, so I’m as big a France backer as anyone, but this number is too high against a top 10 team in the world.
If there’s a template to beat France, Paraguay provided a poor man’s version of it in the Round of 16, frustrating France with a compact low block and physical play but with little semblance of a counterattack, taking five shots worth 0.1 expected goals. France had 14 non-penalty shots, but only four inside the penalty area and two within 15 yards, for a total of 0.7 non-penalty expected goals. The Atlas Lions may not be as stout defensively, but they’re far better in transition, and they’ll have more possession than Paraguay did (25%).
Morocco was not good in the first half vs. Canada, taking a single shot despite 65% possession. After scoring five minutes into the second half, Morocco was much more comfortable, letting Canada have the ball then striking on the counter twice in the final 10 minutes. France’s defense this tournament has been fine but not as solid as in previous tournaments, so it’s possible Morocco can find holes on the run.
I’m not saying Morocco should be favored over France or expected to win, just that the gap between these teams does not justify such a long price. Morocco can get by France one in four times, so +320 is worth playing.
Spain vs. Belgium
Spain-Belgium both teams to score (-115)
Belgium dashed American dreams by routing the United States 4-1 in the Round of 16, scoring first early and then often. That game was by far the best Belgium has looked at this World Cup, even with Jeremy Doku coming off the bench and Kevin De Bruyne not playing at all. Belgium’s central midfield was more athletic with Amadou Onana, whose injury is a big blow. Even without him, Belgium perfectly executed a game plan of avoiding the U.S. press, and may look to do likewise against Spain.
Spain got past Portugal in the Round of 16 on Mikel Merino’s stoppage-time winner, limiting Cristiano Ronaldo and teammates to 10 shots and 0.6 expected goals. Spain is the first team ever to keep six straight World Cup clean sheets, doing it while limiting opponents in both shot quality and quantity. Spain has allowed the lowest shot quality of any team in the tournament, while conceding the second-fewest shots of any knockout-stage team.
Having said that, Belgium will be the second-best midfield Spain has faced at the tournament, and Belgium head coach Rudi Garcia has shown that he’s willing to press hard for goals late, as Belgium did in scoring twice in the final five minutes against Senegal. Because of that, even if Spain is largely dominant, Belgium should have chances late if nothing else. I like both teams to score (-115).
Norway vs. England
Norway vs. England over 2.5 goals (-120)
In the most chaotic game of the tournament so far, 10-man England hung on for a 3-2 win over Mexico on Sunday, making England the third national team ever to win a competitive away game at Estadio Azteca. It wasn’t pretty, but England had the grit and tactical advantage to survive 45 minutes (including stoppage time) while down a man.
Norway upset Brazil 2-1 in the Round of 16, thanks to two goals from the inevitable Erling Haaland. It was a different sort of game for Norway, which didn’t always look comfortable with so much of the ball (66%) but still found a way to win. Norway won’t have nearly that much possession against England, and that suits Norway just fine. Haaland and Co. prefer a more balanced game that provides chances in transition, and they’ll have those opportunities against England.
Each of Norway’s five games at this tournament has had at least three goals, and each has had at least 3.2 expected goals (including penalties). England’s games haven’t been that open, but three of five have had at least three goals. The exceptions were against Ghana and Panama, both of which played a low block that Norway won’t use. This game should have plenty of opportunities for both teams to rely on stars Haaland and Harry Kane, resulting in goals one way or the other.
Argentina vs. Switzerland
Switzerland under 0.5 goals (+115) vs Argentina
Argentina is in the quarterfinals as expected, beating Egypt 3-2 on Tuesday. But getting here wasn’t easy of course, as Argentina became the first team in World Cup history to win a match in regulation after trailing by two goals with 15 minutes left. Despite giving up two goals each to Egypt and Cape Verde, the Argentina defense hasn’t been awful, though more susceptible on the counterattack. Argentina conceded only five shots to Egypt and only 0.5 expected goals on 16 shots to Cape Verde.
Switzerland is in the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time in 72 years, after eliminating Colombia on penalties following a scoreless draw. Among the quarterfinalists, Switzerland is bottom two in goals, expected goals and shots, and I’m playing the Swiss not to score in this game.
The bet is a bit of a gamble that Johan Manzambi doesn’t play. Switzerland’s most dynamic player missed the Round of 16 with a knee injury, and Switzerland has one goal in 322 minutes (including stoppage time) without him at this tournament. The Swiss are not aggressive in transition like Egypt was against Argentina, and without Manzambi (or if he’s limited), they could easily put up a bagel in regulation.
