NFL offseason power rankings: No. 17 Cincinnati Bengals better maximize Joe Burrow's prime, and fast
Certain teams in all sports, almost always in small markets, have to deal with regular speculation that their star player wants to leave. Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow opened that door himself last season.
Late in a lost season that included another major injury, Burrow made some odd comments during a midweek media conference on his 29th birthday.
"If I want to keep doing this, I have to have fun doing it," Burrow said. "I've been through a lot. If it's not fun then what am I doing it for?"
A few days later, Burrow had one of the worst performances of his career in a sleepy 24-0 home loss to a Baltimore Ravens team that didn't finish .500. That was beyond strange, especially considering the remarks he made a few days before.
That's all it took to spark debate among plenty of amateur psychologists. Most of them came to the conclusion that Burrow was saying he wanted out of Cincinnati, which happened in part because the Bengals aren't a popular big-market team. If the Giants or Jets quarterback ever indicates he's unhappy, you won't find a soul saying it's because he wants to leave New York.
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Burrow said his comments had nothing to do with Cincinnati, but that didn't slow down the chatter. Whatever was going on, it was unusual. It brought to mind the story of Andrew Luck, who retired at age 29 after being frustrated with constant injuries on a poorly constructed Colts team. There were also comparisons to Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson, who retired in part because the Lions kept losing.
Burrow's grumbles have been mostly forgotten now. The Bengals won two of their last three games with the offense producing like it normally has with Burrow, Cincinnati trading Burrow never became an offseason storyline and Burrow said he was thrilled with the team's offseason, including a high-profile trade for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II.
"I'm really excited about the moves we made this offseason," Burrow told Vanity Fair. "We need to get better, so it was exciting to see the initiative from everybody in the organization to realize that we're in this exciting stage."
Maybe Burrow was just having a bad day when he sadly talked about not having fun. Even if that storm passed, the sentiment that Burrow isn't having the best time playing football lingers.
The Bengals are just 19-16 in Burrow's starts over the past three seasons, and that includes missing the playoffs despite Burrow playing at an MVP level in 2024. Cincinnati has missed the playoffs three straight seasons. The Bengals' defense has become a big problem, and a spotty offensive line is a reason Burrow has suffered injuries that led to missed games.
Burrow is an incredible talent, and if it weren't for one Super Bowl run in 2021 and a good 12-4 encore the following season, we'd be having Archie Manning vibes about his career. Or maybe it's a Dan Marino path, with an early Super Bowl loss and then never enough help to get him back there.
The Bengals made big moves to assuage Burrow. The trade for Lawrence, in which the Bengals sent the 10th pick of the draft to the New York Giants, was the first trade involving a top-10 selection for a non-quarterback since the Raiders traded for Randy Moss in 2005. It was impossible to bridge the gap with Trey Hendrickson after a couple years of contract drama, but Cincinnati spent $60 million over three years to replace him with Boye Mafe. Safety Bryan Cook and defensive lineman Jonathan Allen each got $12.5 million per season to help the defense in Cincinnati.
The offensive line didn't get much work, and that's an ongoing concern, but at least the Bengals did something. The Bengals still have an all-world receiving duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, a productive running back in Chase Brown and one of the NFL's best quarterbacks in Burrow.
"I think this is the most talented roster that we've had since I've been here," said Burrow, who was less than two minutes from a Super Bowl win against the Rams at the end of the 2021 season.
Burrow hasn't given any signs that his mid-career crisis is still an issue, though we'll see how this season plays out. The Bengals wasting years of Burrow's prime (and future Hall of Famer Chase's prime too) is becoming impossible to ignore. The Bengals are trying. But something needs to change. Quickly.
Offseason grade
Dexter Lawrence II is a fantastic defensive lineman, able to provide stellar pass rush from the interior. His run defense was down last season, but he has consistently graded as an elite run stopper. Whether he was worth the 10th pick of the draft as he enters his age-29 season can be debated, but Lawrence's talent is indisputable. He might be the Bengals' best defensive player since Geno Atkins many years ago.
The other candidate for that honor is Trey Hendrickson, who left for the Ravens this offseason after he and the Bengals were never able to come together on a long-term extension. The Bengals signed edge rusher Boye Mafe from Seattle to help replace him, and also signed safety Bryan Cook and defensive lineman Jonathan Allen.
The draft was thin after the Lawrence trade, but defensive end Cashius Howell and cornerback Tacario Davis were taken in the second and third rounds and could help right away. Maybe the Bengals will regret trading that pick to the Giants over the long term — especially if offensive line issues persist after making no major upgrades — but Lawrence and other additions make the Bengals better right now.
Grade: B
Quarterback report
Joe Burrow's health is a big part of his career story. He tore his left ACL as a rookie in 2020, missed seven games after tearing a ligament in his right wrist in 2023 and then last season he missed nine games due to turf toe surgery. That's half of Burrow's six NFL seasons that have been significantly impacted by a major injury.
The Bengals had the 28th-ranked offensive line in the NFL last season, according to Pro Football Focus, and the same starting five return. Maybe the unit gets better with continuity and some of the younger players improving, but it's a concern considering the Bengals' extremely valuable quarterback has missed so many games due to injury. There's no disputing how good Burrow is. The only question is how much help he'll get.
Odds breakdown
From Yahoo's Ben Fawkes: "Last season was another one marred by injuries to Joe Burrow, as Cincinnati finished a disappointing 6-11. One advantage to that finish, though, was the ability to trade the No. 10 overall pick for New York Giants DT Dexter Lawrence II to help improve a beleaguered defense.
"Free-agent signings Boye Mafe and Jonathan Allen (along with safeties Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger) should help stabilize a unit that was 30th in defensive DVOA. The Bengals are favored in a shocking 15 games this season, including four of their first five games before the bye. Look for Cincy to clear its win total of 9.5."
Yahoo's fantasy take
From Yahoo's Scott Pianowski: "We think of the Bengals as a carnival team (fun offense, leaky defense) and that means it's a blast to invest in the passing game. But save some room for Chase Brown, too. Brown is coming off an RB8 season (despite Joe Burrow missing nine games) and there's little on the depth chart after Brown. And while Brown is a capable runner, his receiving chops (69-437-5 last year) keep him in the field in all packages. Brown makes a lot of sense as a mid-second round pick."
Stat to remember
Ja'Marr Chase's 6,837 yards through the first five seasons of his career is the second-most in NFL history behind only Joe Burrow's college teammate, Justin Jefferson. Randy Moss and Jerry Rice, perhaps the two greatest receivers ever, are fourth and fifth on that list.
Chase's numbers came down from an otherworldly 2024 season, but that was to be expected with Burrow missing nine starts. Chase still put up a 125-1,412-8 line with Joe Flacco and Jake Browning starting more than half of Cincinnati's games.
Burrow is fantastic and the Bengals' most valuable asset, but Chase isn't far behind. We could look back at this Bengals era and realize Chase was the best player on the roster, regardless of positional value. As long as Chase is healthy he will be one of the best receivers in the game, if not the best.
Burning question: How will the defense improve?
The Bengals' defense couldn't stop the pass or the run last season. That unit was tied for 29th in passing yards allowed per play and 31st in yards allowed per rush. If you prefer advanced metrics, Cincinnati was 28th in EPA (expected points added) allowed per dropback and 30th in EPA allowed per rush. It was a defense without a strength.
Every level of the defense needed help. Dexter Lawrence II, Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe upgrade the defensive line even with Trey Hendrickson leaving. The backend of the defense got better with Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger being added at safety. That was necessary after the Bengals were shockingly awful defending tight ends last season, allowing a league-high 1,444 yards to TEs.
One position that simply has to play better is linebacker. There were 88 graded LBs by Pro Football Focus last season, and the Bengals' top three linebackers ranked 83rd (Demetrius Knight Jr.), 85th (Barrett Carter) and 88th (Oren Burks). Carter and Knight are the top two linebackers and they were rookies last season. So improvement can be expected as they mature, and maybe that helps a glaring issue with missed tackles. The Bengals led the NFL in missed tackles last season with 171, which was 40 more than anyone else, according to BetMGM. If the linebackers are still in the bottom 10 of the league at their position, it will be hard for Cincinnati's defense to be much better.
Al Golden took over at defensive coordinator for Lou Anarumo last season and the results didn't change. Tackling was abysmal, the pass rush wasn't good enough as Hendrickson dealt with injuries, they couldn't defend tight ends at all and the linebacker play was the worst in the NFL. There's a lot to clean up. But the personnel should be better.
Best-case scenario
The Bengals are banking on two things that haven't happened much recently: the defense being at least average and Joe Burrow staying healthy. Going 2-for-2 on those isn't unreasonable. Cincinnati is more talented on defense, especially if their young linebackers develop. And not every player who has dealt with multiple injuries is injury prone. Like Matthew Stafford early in his career, Burrow has dealt with some bad injury luck and that might not continue to repeat.
The AFC North is vulnerable, with the Steelers relying on a 43-year-old quarterback, many changes in Baltimore and the Browns being the Browns. The Bengals can easily win the division and, as we've seen, they can be a nightmare matchup in the playoffs. If everything goes right, we could see the Bengals back in a Super Bowl. That seems crazy to say about a team ranked No. 17, but it speaks to the wide range of outcomes for Cincinnati.
Nightmare scenario
Bengals fans have already lived it. It seems impossible that a team with Joe Burrow could miss the playoffs for three straight seasons. The 2024 season, when Burrow led the NFL with 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns but Cincinnati still missed the playoffs, was a historic aberration. The concerns aren't much different in 2026. The defense might still lag behind even with Dexter Lawrence II, the offensive line wasn't improved and there should also be more questions than there have been about Zac Taylor as a head coach. Taylor's career record as a head coach is 52-63-1 but seems untouchable.
The Bengals are 24-27 over the past three seasons, and showed in 2024 that even if Burrow is healthy for a full season they might not take advantage of it. Another season missing the playoffs in Burrow's prime should cast a harsh glare on what's going on with the franchise, though it's not like Bengals ownership has ever been proactive.
The crystal ball says
If you think the Bengals should be ranked much higher, that's fair. Any team with Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase should be a top 10 team every season. But at this point it's hard to trust the Bengals to perform to that level. Dexter Lawrence II and the other defensive additions could boost that side of the ball, and the offense will be good if Burrow is healthy.
The Bengals' upside is obvious. But after three disappointing seasons, they deserve to be near the middle of these rankings. Cincinnati will be in the playoff mix all season, with the chance to be more than that if the defense has a huge improvement. But don't get your hopes up too high.
