Fantasy Baseball: These 5 batters have exceeded expectations but can you trust them in the second half?
Using the Yahoo Player Rater, I found several hitters that were drafted in the later rounds or went undrafted that were ranked highly based on their fantasy productions. These hitters have been unexpected fantasy contributors, which many fantasy managers have been enjoying throughout the season.
Can we trust that these hitters will continue succeeding in the second half? Have they shown any new skills or underlying metrics that have contributed to their success? Or are there parts of their fantasy profiles that could be fool's gold, meaning we should be cautious moving forward? We'll examine these hitters to answer these questions for the second half.
Jordan Walker, OF, Cardinals (95% Rostered)
Walker has been one of the most profitable hitters on any player rater, especially since he was undrafted in many formats. He has already set career bests in several categories. Walker's .346 BABIP is fueling the higher batting average (.294), though he can run higher BABIPs. The tools have been loud for Walker.
Walker maintains a lower contact rate (71.6%) with elite bat speed (79.2 mph). He is using a more closed off stance with his feet closer together (21.9 inches). That's helping Walker hit more balls in the ideal attack angle (5 to 20 degrees) 54.4% of the time, three points above his career average. I've theorized that those stance changes help Walker have a better approach against different pitch types.
That's been evident in Walker's wOBA improving against all pitch types. Walker's .391 wOBA against fastballs increased by 100 points with an 85 point jump against breaking pitches (.334 wOBA). His .448 wOBA has been over two times higher than the .168 wOBA against offspeed pitches.
That data aligns with Walker barreling the ball more often, with a 9.4% barrel rate per plate appearance while pulling the ball into the air 16.8% of the time. For context, he had a 6.8% barrel rate per plate appearance and a 13.7% pulled air rate throughout his career.
Walker is built like a linebacker with elite speed and athleticism. Listed at 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds, Walker boasts a 92nd percentile Sprint Speed. He has been running more often this year, with an 18% stolen base opportunity rate, up from 13% throughout his career. There's the potential for 20+ stolen bases within Walker's profile.
Walker has shown significant swing changes with more hard-hit balls into the air, leading to more barrels. He is finally unlocking his power ceiling. Walker has the tools and skills to trust into the second half.
Otto Lopez, 2B/SS, Marlins (93% Rostered)
I discussed Lopez in an offseason article as a hitter that could be one step away from being even better. Lopez has been fortunate with a .370 BABIP supporting a career-high batting average at .334 when we toss out the 10 plate appearances from 2022. Currently, Lopez's BABIP and batting average have been over 50 points higher than his career norms, so those will likely regress.
I wondered if Lopez could develop more power, but his bat speed (72.1 mph) and barrel rate per plate appearance (5.6%) have been similar to last season. That said, he still projects for average power, which tends to be around 15 home runs. Lopez continues to hit the ball hard when in the air, but it's hard to have additional power when he hits groundballs 50.8% of the time.
The 17 stolen bases through 410 plate appearances might be the most surprising aspect for Lopez besides the batting average. His 18% stolen base opportunity is identical to his career average. However, he is converting a higher percentage of his chances, 85% of the time this season, seven points above his career norm. Most projections have Lopez for 25 stolen bases, but he could push for 30.
It's fool's gold to expect another level from Lopez based on the data, but he is fast and makes plenty of contact, which can help boost BABIP. Even if Lopez's BABIP regresses, we're still looking at .280 to .290 hitter. This could be an outlier season for Lopez from a batting average standpoint, but breakout or spike seasons come from a mixture of luck and skill.
Liam Hicks, C/1B, Marlins (84% Rostered)
One of the biggest hitter surprises this year is Liam Hicks, who has played at catcher (35 games) and first base (25), potentially making him a light version of Ben Rice with the dual eligibility. Hicks leans on his strong plate discipline, with a near-elite 90.7% contact rate and 3.9% swinging-strike rate. That's further evident with Hicks, as he walks more (9.6%) than he strikes out (8.8%), making him a strong option in points, OBP and batting average leagues.
Hicks is pulling the ball into the air (19.7%) more often this season, up nearly five points from last year. He lacks power, given his 3.6% barrel rate per plate appearance and a slower 68.5 mph bat speed. That's where Hicks' pulled air rate matters, since all 13 of his home runs have been pulled toward right field. He peaked at six home runs across 494 plate appearances in the minors in 2024, showing that he is likely outperforming the projections.
Hicks is one of three hitters with more home runs (13) than barrels (10) among players with 10-15 barrels this season. The other two hitters on that list include Ozzie Albies (14 home runs and 13 barrels) and Brooks Lee (14 home runs and 11 barrels). That explains the projections expecting around five more home runs for Hicks. Sometimes hitters that lean into the pull-heavy profiles can outperform their projections. Typically, we want to see more barrels than home runs instead of the opposite.
It helps that Hicks remains atop the Marlins' lineup, though he is often in a strong-side platoon role. The strong plate discipline keeps his floor high, so that's not fool's gold. However, there likely isn't additional upside unless he can volume his way to fantasy value. Keep those power expectations in check for Hicks moving forward.
Miguel Vargas, 1B/3B, White Sox (93% Rostered)
This is an example of a post-hype sleeper taking a step forward. Vargas has already surpassed his home run (21) and stolen base (11) totals from 2025. Interestingly, Vargas is walking more (13.7%), but the swing rates haven't shifted much. If Vargas' walk rate sustains, he will be a strong asset in points and OBP leagues.
The main change for Vargas is the high-end bat speed (74.1 mph), jumping from 70.6 mph in 2025. That aligns with Vargas' career-high 10.5% barrel rate per plate appearance, nearly four points above his numbers from 2025. He is consistently pulling the ball into the air, with a 25.4% pulled air rate, similar to last season (23.1%). Vargas has shown the ability to hit 30+ home runs.
The most surprising aspect in Vargas' profile might be the double-digit stolen bases. After an 8% stolen base opportunity rate in his career, it rose to 13% in the first half. He has shown above-average athleticism in the past and this season, with a 76th percentile Sprint Speed. Going from single-digit stolen base totals to around 15 boosts his value significantly.
Nothing about Vargas' fantasy profile is a fluke. We can trust in Vargas to be a reliable option in the second half with the potential to push for 35-40 home runs and 15-20 stolen bases as a peak outcome.
Brandon Marsh, OF, Phillies (77% Rostered)
After often being platooned by the Phillies, Marsh has been playing regularly this season. Since 2021, Marsh leads the league in BABIP (.372), which isn't something we can regress for him. Marsh is using a more aggressive approach, with a 37.3% chase rate and a 53% swing rate. Both metrics have been 8-9 points higher than his career norm. That seems to have the biggest impact on Marsh's 5.2% walk rate, a career low.
Marsh's 76.1% contact rate, 71.5 mph bat speed and a 6.3% barrel rate per plate appearance have been consistent with his career norms. He has been a bit fortunate from a home run standpoint, with a 16.7% HR/F, up three points from his career average. That helps Marsh push for a career high in home runs, with 25 being within the range of outcomes.
Marsh's stolen base opportunity rates have fluctuated, aligning with the spike in stolen base seasons. He had an 18% stolen base opportunity rate (19 steals) in 2024, 7% stolen base opportunities (7 steals) in 2025 and 12% stolen base opportunity rate (8 steals) this season. The projections expect Marsh to steal 13-15 stolen bases, but he may not reach a career high beyond the 2024 season.
The most fluky part of Marsh's profile is the batting average, with many projections expecting it to regress closer to .260 to .270. Besides that, there haven't been any skill improvements. However, the playing time bump has been crucial to his fantasy value.
