Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings: Updated look at game's most unpredictable position
How do you make the fantasy gods laugh? Put together a rank of starting pitchers. Starting pitchers are the sirens of fantasy baseball, forever enticing us, forever teasing us, forever breaking our hearts. They’ll surge and they’ll slump, they’ll get hot and they’ll break down.
In between injuries, there will be changes in approach, velocity gains and decreases and a number of other factors we can hardly perceive.
Still, the game is to make intelligent guesses on every position, so we trudge on. Just keep in mind these ranks are more guess than anything, similar to any list at this maddening position. What’s happened to this point is merely an audition; we’re trying to predict the future here. If I were headed into a fresh draft tonight, I’d be working off this list.
At the very bottom, I ranked all the injured pitchers. That’s a courtesy list and not for debate.
The Big Tickets
$33 Paul Skenes
$32 Cristopher Sánchez
$30 Jacob Misiorowski
$28 Cam Schlittler
$28 Yoshinobu Yamamoto
$26 Bryan Woo
$25 Chase Burns
$25 Chris Sale
$25 Jacob deGrom
$22 Shohei Ohtani
Skenes keeps improving, taking his walk rate down and getting better at limiting hard contact. He’s been a little lucky with sequencing of events, but every ERA estimator has him under 3. With Pittsburgh off to a .500 start, we have every reason to expect Skenes to pitch meaningful games in September. He's the one first-round pitcher this year who justified the freight.
Sánchez finished second in the Cy Young voting last year, and has designs on the hardware this time around. The walk rate is still microscopic, and it’s almost impossible to homer off him. But just for fun, he’s bumped his strikeout rate by 3.6% while maintaining the same ground-ball tilt. Even with Zack Wheeler back in the mix, the Phillies should start Sánchez first in any playoff series.
There’s a lot of talk about Misiorowski’s velocity, but what especially blows me away is his best-in-league extension. It almost looks like the 6-foot-7 righty is handing the ball to the catcher. Imagine if he gets better with his chase and walk rates, which are merely average. Baby, you're a big star now.
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Legitimate Building Blocks
$20 Zack Wheeler
$19 Logan Gilbert
$19 Mike King
$19 Nolan McLean
$18 Kevin Gausman
$17 Shane McClanahan
$16 Parker Messick
$16 Joe Ryan
$15 Nick Martinez
$15 Dylan Cease
$14 José Soriano
$14 Kyle Harrison
$14 Nathan Eovaldi
$14 Gavin Williams
$14 Nick Lodolo
$13 Davis Martin
$13 Bryce Elder
$13 Spencer Arrighetti
$13 Randy Vásquez
$13 Max Meyer
Gilbert’s slump is largely his own doing, with a major drop in strikeouts and a bump in home runs. But it’s also possible I erred when trying to draft Seattle’s entire staff this spring, overemphasizing the big park and ignoring the poor defense the Mariners have assembled. And maybe Gilbert is more of a soft ace anyway, as his ERA has never been under 3.20. You’d ideally like him to be your No. 2.
Those team fielding stats look a lot better in San Diego and Petco Park is still a favorable place to pitch, if not the extreme pitcher park it used to be. King is at the front of that rotation, getting bushels of ground balls and finally dominating lefties as well as righties. King doesn’t make the radar gun explode, but all four of his primary pitches (both fastballs, slider, change) are plus offerings. I wish I had taken the injury discount on King this spring.
No new tale to tell with Cease — the strikeouts are elite, the walks are bloated, the expected ERA is better than the front-door number. But he’s cut the home run rate in half and Toronto’s defense is also above average. If this is where Cease settles in, it’s very playable for fantasy managers.
Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down
$12 Michael McGreevy
$12 Justin Wrobleski
$12 Landen Roupp
$12 Ranger Suárez
$12 Shota Imanaga
$12 George Kirby
$11 Michael Wacha
$11 Drew Rasmussen
$11 Will Warren
$11 Payton Tolle
$11 Braxton Ashcraft
$11 Mike Soroka
$11 Freddy Peralta
$11 Framber Valdez
$10 Emerson Hancock
$10 Casey Mize
$10 Spencer Strider
$9 Carlos Rodon
$9 Sonny Gray
$9 Martin Pérez
$9 Bailey Ober
$9 J.T. Ginn
$9 Sandy Alcantara
$9 Edward Cabrera
$8 Eduardo Rodríguez
$8 Kyle Bradish
$8 Logan Henderson
$7 Bryce Miller
$7 Trey Yesavage
Ashcraft only has two wins but that’s unlucky, as he’s shown the ability to get deep into games. His control keeps pitch counts down, and he has the ability to grow into more strikeouts, given that his chase rates and swinging-strike rates are both improving. Ashcraft holds sneaky value as a back-of-rotation fantasy starter.
Something doesn’t add up with Alcantara, who has a fastball over 97 mph and a chase rate better than average, but almost never gets strikeouts (just 16.9%). Maybe it’s time to accept that the one Cy Young season was a fluke and never coming back. He’s posted a 4.87 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over his past 41 starts, and that’s how I’m going to consider him moving forward. Now at age 30, it’s time for the back-nine seasons.
Soroka had one start where the Brewers ate his lunch (eight runs), but otherwise, he’s been helpful in every turn. Some ERA estimators believe his 3.49 ERA (FIP would go even lower), some don’t (Savant suggests a ghastly 4.78). But with a small home run rate, 10.1 K/9 and 3.9 K/BB, I’m going to give Soroka the benefit of the doubt.
Bargain Bin
$6 Robbie Ray
$6 Eury Pérez
$5 Trevor McDonald
$5 Connor Prielipp
$5 Peter Lambert
$5 Janson Junk
$4 Kai-Wei Teng
$4 Ryan Weathers
$4 Foster Griffin
$4 Zebby Matthews
$4 Mitch Keller
$4 Connelly Early
$4 Jeffrey Springs
$4 Grant Holmes
$4 Emmet Sheehan
$4 Jesús Luzardo
$4 Tanner Bibee
$4 Andrew Abbott
$4 Zac Gallen
$3 Aaron Civale
$3 Keider Montero
$3 Sean Burke
$3 Joey Cantillo
$3 Seth Lugo
$3 Roki Sasaki
$3 Trevor Rogers
$2 Lucas Giolito
$2 Walbert Ureña
$2 Reynaldo López
$2 Griffin Jax
$2 Kumar Rocker
$2 Noah Schultz
$2 Jack Leiter
$2 Ryne Nelson
$2 Reid Detmers
$2 Shane Baz
$1 Andre Pallante
$1 Walker Buehler
$1 Jameson Taillon
$1 Merrill Kelly
$1 Aaron Nola
$1 Andrew Painter
$0 Carmen Mlodzinski
$0 Anthony Kay
$0 Tatsuya Imai
$0 Luis Severino
$0 David Peterson
$0 Noah Cameron
$0 Bubba Chandler
$0 Matt Liberatore
$0 Brady Singer
$0 Tomoyuki Sugano
$0 Cade Cavalli
$0 Adrian Houser
$0 Chris Bassitt
$0 Tyler Mahle
$0 Mike Burrows
$0 Jack Flaherty
$0 Luis Castillo
Lambert’s control improved during his one season in Japan, and it’s nice to see him no longer tied to the thin air of Colorado. His xERA of 3.43 justifies the six solid starts we’ve seen, and he’s also above code with his strikeout and ground-ball rates. If the control gets a little better, we’ll start talking Circle of Trust. For now, he’s a preferred streamer, someone deserving of a tag higher than 30%.
Nola is the most over-rostered player in Yahoo, trading at 58% despite a 5.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. These bloated ratios aren’t new trends, they’re the continuation of a theme: the decline of Nola’s career. Since the beginning of the 2023 season, he’s posted a 4.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. We kindly remind you, player development isn’t always linear, but player deterioration almost always is.
Rogers was over his skis last year, posting a 1.81 ERA despite Statcast suggesting a 3.41 ERA. Okay, that second number is still good. This year it’s been bombs away, with a 6.87 ERA, a 1.66 WHIP and a paltry 19.5% strikeout rate. Your command needs to be fine when your average fastball is shy of 93 mph; Rogers is hitting too much of the plate and paying the price. His ground-ball rate has also fallen apart after last year’s dream season.
Courtesy Injury Ranks — Not for Debate
It’s not my elbow or shoulder and I’m not Dr. James Andrews. Everyone seems to have a different idea on injury optimism and risk tolerance; season to taste.
$21 Max Fried
$21 Garrett Crochet
$16 Tarik Skubal
$14 Tyler Glasnow
$14 Hunter Brown
$13 Logan Webb
$11 Nick Pivetta
$10 Cole Ragans
$9 Brandon Woodruff
$9 Taj Bradley
$8 Blake Snell
$8 Kris Bubic
$7 Matt Boyd
$7 Clay Holmes
$4 MacKenzie Gore
$3 Chase Dollander
$3 Mick Abel
$3 Yusei Kikuchi
$3 Lance McCullers
$2 Justin Verlander
$1 Dean Kremer
$1 Max Scherzer
$1 Cristian Javier
